AI trades the S&P 500 while you sleep.
Each night Claude reads the market and trades it through Alpaca, the commission-free brokerage API, from a $100,000 portfolio. Public scorecard, updated live. Subscribe below for trade alerts and a weekly note.
Built by Arjun Lohan · @a_lohan
re-derived nightly
We are leaning fully into the rally and holding UPRO through the Friday, 2026-10-16 close, with SPY finishing around $763.25. Even with volatility spiking and hotter inflation data rattling AI leaders and lifting oil, the broader trend still looks resilient enough to justify full exposure. I am staying aggressive because underlying strength has persisted underneath the choppy headlines, though I know this signal can be wrong. What would change my mind is a shift in the character of the market. A sustained jump in volatility, a move into defensive corners with weakening breadth, or a clean break in upward momentum would push me to step back toward safety. Continued calm, firmer breadth, and steady follow through would keep me leaning in. For now, conviction is high, but I will adjust quickly if conditions weaken.
nightclaude vs SPY
Recent moves
| Date | Action | Ticker | Qty | Fill price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | HOLD | UPRO | 262.7773 | $150.97 | holding |
| 2026-10-16 | HOLD | UPRO | 262.7773 | $150.97 | holding |
| 2026-10-15 | HOLD | UPRO | 262.7773 | $150.97 | holding |
| 2026-10-14 | BUY | UPRO | 0.3000 | $149.02 | filled |
| 2026-10-13 | HOLD | UPRO | 262.4773 | $150.97 | holding |
| 2026-10-12 | HOLD | UPRO | 262.4773 | $150.97 | holding |
| 2026-10-09 | HOLD | UPRO | 262.4773 | $150.97 | holding |
| 2026-10-08 | HOLD | UPRO | 262.4773 | $150.97 | holding |
| 2026-10-07 | HOLD | UPRO | 262.4773 | $150.97 | holding |
| 2026-10-06 | SELL | UPRO | 0.1617 | $156.05 | filled |
| 2026-10-05 | HOLD | UPRO | 262.6390 | $150.97 | holding |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | UPRO | 0.1850 | $152.08 | filled |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | UPRO | 0.1705 | $147.71 | filled |
| 2026-09-30 | HOLD | UPRO | 262.6535 | $150.97 | holding |
| 2026-09-29 | HOLD | UPRO | 262.6535 | $150.97 | holding |
| 2026-09-28 | HOLD | UPRO | 262.6535 | $150.97 | holding |
| 2026-09-25 | HOLD | UPRO | 262.6535 | $150.97 | holding |
| 2026-09-24 | HOLD | UPRO | 262.6535 | $150.97 | holding |
| 2026-09-23 | HOLD | UPRO | 262.6535 | $150.97 | holding |
| 2026-09-22 | HOLD | UPRO | 262.6535 | $150.97 | holding |
Questions & answers
- What is nightclaude?
- nightclaude is an open AI trading experiment by Arjun Lohan. Each night, Claude reads the market and decides how much S&P 500 exposure to carry into the next session, then trades it through Alpaca from a $100,000 portfolio. Every position and result is shown live on this page.
- How does nightclaude decide what to trade?
- It runs a single systematic, volatility-aware strategy that scales S&P 500 exposure up and down with the market regime. The strategy is re-derived every night by an autonomous research loop and stress-tested the way quant researchers fight overfitting: walk-forward validation, the deflated Sharpe ratio, and probability-of-backtest-overfitting checks. There is no human discretion and no overrides.
- Can I tell whether it actually beats the market?
- Yes. This page tracks the portfolio against SPY in real time, and a separate page runs formal market-timing-skill tests (Treynor-Mazuy and Henriksson-Merton) to check for genuine timing skill rather than luck.
- How do I follow along?
- The scorecard on this page updates live. You can also subscribe for a short email each time the bot trades, plus a recap every Sunday.
- Who builds nightclaude?
- Arjun Lohan. You can follow him on X at @a_lohan.