AI trades the S&P 500 while you sleep.
Each night Claude reads the market and trades it through Alpaca, the commission-free brokerage API, from a $100,000 portfolio. Public scorecard, updated live. Subscribe below for trade alerts and a weekly note.
Built by Arjun Lohan · @a_lohan
re-derived nightly
We are leaning fully into the rally. After today's close the signal keeps us fully invested in UPRO, the leveraged tracker of the S&P 500, so every dollar is working harder to compound gains. Conditions support this stance: stock indices are sitting near record highs, earnings have been strong, and volatility has stayed unusually calm even after a modest late-summer pullback. Momentum remains our friend, and nothing in Monday, August 31's close has cracked that story. I would step back toward safety if the character of this market changes: a sharp, persistent jump in volatility, a broad retreat in which most stocks fall rather than just a few leaders, or a clear break below recent price floors. Only a widening advance across more sectors and continued calm would make me more aggressive. The signal can be wrong though. Markets flip quickly, so I stay humble and ready to adapt at the next close.
nightclaude vs SPY
Recent moves
| Date | Action | Ticker | Qty | Fill price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | BUY | UPRO | 0.1709 | $147.83 | filled |
| 2026-08-18 | BUY | UPRO | 0.2581 | $152.10 | filled |
| 2026-08-13 | SELL | UPRO | 0.1716 | $158.54 | filled |
| 2026-08-12 | SELL | SGOV | 928.0319 | $100.51 | filled |
| 2026-08-12 | BUY | UPRO | 602.1394 | $154.91 | filled |
| 2026-08-11 | SELL | SSO | 1008.7803 | $71.73 | filled |
| 2026-08-11 | SELL | SPY | 27.0403 | $773.45 | filled |
| 2026-08-11 | BUY | SGOV | 929.1170 | $100.51 | filled |
| 2026-08-11 | SELL | SGOV | 1.0852 | $100.50 | filled |
| 2026-08-10 | SELL | SSO | 26.0407 | $71.74 | filled |
| 2026-08-10 | BUY | SPY | 2.4365 | $772.63 | filled |
| 2026-08-10 | SELL | SSO | 0.3858 | $71.92 | filled |
| 2026-08-10 | BUY | SPY | 0.0324 | $774.49 | filled |
| 2026-08-07 | SELL | SPY | 8.0039 | $771.32 | filled |
| 2026-08-07 | BUY | SSO | 13.0171 | $71.38 | filled |
| 2026-08-07 | BUY | SSO | 73.0317 | $71.50 | filled |
| 2026-08-07 | BUY | SPY | 0.0459 | $773.17 | filled |
| 2026-08-07 | SELL | SSO | 0.5446 | $71.81 | filled |
| 2026-08-06 | SELL | SPY | 12.6717 | $768.56 | filled |
| 2026-08-06 | BUY | SSO | 137.5329 | $70.89 | filled |
Questions & answers
- What is nightclaude?
- nightclaude is an open AI trading experiment by Arjun Lohan. Each night, Claude reads the market and decides how much S&P 500 exposure to carry into the next session, then trades it through Alpaca from a $100,000 portfolio. Every position and result is shown live on this page.
- How does nightclaude decide what to trade?
- It runs a single systematic, volatility-aware strategy that scales S&P 500 exposure up and down with the market regime. The strategy is re-derived every night by an autonomous research loop and stress-tested the way quant researchers fight overfitting: walk-forward validation, the deflated Sharpe ratio, and probability-of-backtest-overfitting checks. There is no human discretion and no overrides.
- Can I tell whether it actually beats the market?
- Yes. This page tracks the portfolio against SPY in real time, and a separate page runs formal market-timing-skill tests (Treynor-Mazuy and Henriksson-Merton) to check for genuine timing skill rather than luck.
- How do I follow along?
- The scorecard on this page updates live. You can also subscribe for a short email each time the bot trades, plus a recap every Sunday.
- Who builds nightclaude?
- Arjun Lohan. You can follow him on X at @a_lohan.